Movie outcome

[Equalizer]

I'm looking for a detailed guide on the studio movies.
Ross says the money gained from a movie are not random, while the last over 30 movies I monitored have the tendency to disagree.
He closed the topic I opened on this subject saying there is a detailed guide on studio movies. But I'll be damned if I find it!
All I see is this:
"The money outcome from a movie is hard to say, but it’s calculated of the overall members levels, the studio fame, etc…"
That's not my idea of detailed guide.
And I still say that the money outcome from the movies is random. When saying something else, please bring some evidence because I have over 30 reasons to back up my words.

[Dictator]

Well, i guess you have to be right then and the one who made the actual formulas is wrong. :rolleyes:

Wrong topic anyway. If you are looking for a way to to make straight AVN's, forget it, you'll never get it. It's just one of the mysteries of the game.

[Psyche]

Random imply it can be anything. Where in fact you have a rough idea of the amount of cash the movie is likely to make. High fame, high level studios will always make more money than low fame/level studios, that just basic common sense. What you probably mean is that there's a spread, you can guess how much you can make give or take a few thousands.

[Equalizer]

Exactly this is the problem: I have no idea what the outcome of the movie will be.
I had a lot of consecutive movies with the next situation.
The first movie was AVN, with total levels of under 550, and only 18 pornstars. The next movie was Success, but with over 650 total levels, 24 pornstars and only half the money compared to the first one.
So, tell me, where is the pattern in this one?
And like I said, I have a lot of examples like this one.
Therefore, I have no idea on the outcome and definetly there is no sign that there is something else than a random factor.

And if you keep saying that there is a formula, then that formula doesn't include the number of the pornstars, the total level of participants, fame or studio level.

I'm not asking for THE FORMULA, I'm just asking for a proof that the outcome is not random. And there is no proof!

[Dictator]

D: You want answers?
E: I think I'm entitled to.
D: You want answers?
E: I want the truth!
D: You can't handle the truth!

The truth is out there..

[Equalizer]

No, this whole thing is a conspiracy, I tell you! :D
They want us to believe that there is a formula, but there is none. The formula thing is just a cover story, while they are covering something much, much bigger! :D

[BigJoe]

I'm sorry, but this thread is utterly pointless...

Think about actual movie producers for just a second. They know how many actors are performing and have a good idea of the talent (analogous to levels in VP) of the actors.

Do they know whether its going to be an amazing movie (AVN) or just an average movie (success) before the movie is released?

No.

Are they going to know exactly how much the movie will make while its in theaters?

Hell no.

Now they have a general idea of the answers to these questions, but there is no way they will know EXACTLY what will happen. This is the "random" factor you keep bitching about.

Why are you so hell-bent on knowing exactly what will happen anyways? Knowing everything beforehand will just make things more boring. Just join the movies, sit back and hope for the best. No matter what studios tell you, there is no *secret formula* for making all AVN's, so don't bother trying to figure it out.

[Equalizer]

I'm not bitching about anything. And I said I don't want to know the formula only if there is a formula. It's just that the admins argue with me that there is a formula while I keep saying that it is random.
So, thank you for your answer and for your confirmation that I was right! That's all I wanted to know.

[jessiebelle]

But you're not right, there is a formula. There has to be for the system to be able to decide how much the movie will make.

I also disagree with BigJoe in that its not random.

I don't know the code for the site or have any idea what the formula is but my guess is that the calculation is based on Studio Fame Level, member level at the time they join the movie, amount of time studio members spend out of the hospital during the movie, amount of time studio members stay out of jail during the movie, activity level of the studio members that joined the movie and possibly the number of other studios members the studio members put into the hospital as well as number of successful busts a studio member has and the number of clients a studio members services. Then the difference between an AVN and a success is based off the above factors exceeding a certain percent.

But like I said this is a guess but it is the most logical process I can think of. Now unless your facts show how much time all your members were in the hospital, in jail, out of the hosptial, out of jail, successful at busting, successful at hospitalizing others, total time spent actively in the game, total number of clients they served, how much of the movie had passed before they joined or how much of the movie they were a part of and so on and so forth you will never be able to figure out the formula. Assuming of course that all the above factors I think are looked at covers everything in the secret formula.

I mean seriously think about it, the game is dove via a computer program and all computer programs have to have some sort of formula to produce results. If it was purely random as suggested then you might see a studio with 5000 fame and over 2000 for the movie level making $2,000 for a successful movie one day and then get an AVN the next with a payout of $1,000,000.

Now I can tell you that an AVN does make about twice as much as a success which does explain why your AVN makes almost twice as much as your success in the one sample you provided. I can also tell you that a scandalous studio makes twice as much per movie as a peaceful studio of the same fame and movie level, you can confirm this your self simply by looking at how much fame is gained per movie between the two types of studios (ex. Frenchcut™ was the 80th studio created and Nipplopolis was the 45th studio created yet Frenchcut™ has almost as much fame and is scandalous). That's why if you notice that a lot of those showing in the HOF are from scandalous studios or were at one point in a scandalous studio, by taking the risk of getting mixed up in a studio war they make more money to help them in their progression of the game.

[-dAs]

I totally agree with jessie, there's a formula, something to seem like it's aleatory, but yeah there's a formula, every programmer knows that :D

For making twice when you make an AVN, i don't agree. My studio make 65k for a successfull movie, more than 150k for an AVN...

[Dictator]

* New thread since original posts were in wrong thread *

[BigJoe]

I never said it was random (I specifically put quotes around the word random for this reason).

It just appears random because there is a range of outcomes based on what we actually know. We know its based on levels, fame, AVN vs success and scandalous vs peaceful. The rest is all speculation and will remain that way, hence there will always be that variance.

[Equalizer]

I never said it was random (I specifically put quotes around the word random for this reason).

It just appears random because there is a range of outcomes based on what we actually know. We know its based on levels, fame, AVN vs success and scandalous vs peaceful. The rest is all speculation and will remain that way, hence there will always be that variance.

These words made me get to the idea that you said it's random:
"Now they have a general idea of the answers to these questions, but there is no way they will know EXACTLY what will happen."
And:
"No matter what studios tell you, there is no *secret formula* for making all AVN's, so don't bother trying to figure it out."

Anyway, this whole discussion wouldn't have started if I didn't see those awkward results.
Having a difference in total levels of at least +75 and gaining almost half, you must admit that it is weird, so my opinion is that the "formula" needs a little adjustment.

[Psyche]

I will now attempt to prove to you that the outcome is NOT random. You have provided NO evidence, NO data, made bold assumption and concluded that the outcome is random since you can not see any correlation between your data, you have not even attempted to back up your claims and just said people are wrong when they disagreed with you. You too can now follow my footsteps and either confirm or disprove my findings.
1. If your studio is on zero fame, your outcome will be zero since your studio will be destroyed.
2. If you start a movie and no-one joins ie your combined level is zero your movie outcome will be zero, no stars no money.
From these two fairly safe assumptions you can conclude that there is a basic relationship between your studio fame and combined level.

Outcome = Studio fame * Combined level * C * X

Where C = A constant ie a number
X = Other variables.

Here is my data:

Time Movie Result Outcome Fame Combined level Studio fame AVN outcome
Jul/31/2009, 4:00 Amateur Anal Success 3484 3 67 518 6968
Jul/30/2009, 8:00 Amateur Anal AVN 6834 7 67 511 6834
Jul/29/2009, 10:00 Amateur Anal Success 3564 4 66 507 7128
Jul/28/2009, 14:00 Amateur Anal AVN 6468 6 66 501 6468
Jul/27/2009, 18:00 Amateur Anal AVN 7062 7 66 494 7062
Jul/26/2009, 15:00 Amateur Anal AVN 6534 8 66 486 6534
Jul/25/2009, 19:00 Amateur Anal Success 3564 3 66 483 7128
Jul/24/2009, 22:00 Amateur Anal AVN 7085 9 65 474 7085
Jul/24/2009, 2:00 Amateur Anal AVN 6890 6 65 478 6890
Jul/23/2009, 6:00 Amateur Anal Success 3282 3 65 475 6564
Jul/22/2009, 10:00 Amateur Anal AVN 6110 8 65 467 6110
Jul/21/2009, 10:00 Amateur Anal Success 3087 5 65 462 6174
Jul/20/2009, 12:00 Amateur Anal Success 3408 4 71 458 6816
Jul/19/2009, 16:00 Amateur Anal AVN 5985 7 63 451 5985
Jul/18/2009, 20:00 Amateur Anal AVN 5922 9 63 442 5922
Jul/18/2009, 0:00 Amateur Anal Success 3024 3 63 439 6048
Jul/17/2009, 4:00 Amateur Anal AVN 6076 8 62 431 6076
Jul/16/2009, 8:00 Amateur Anal Success 2976 4 62 427 5952
Jul/15/2009, 8:00 Amateur Anal AVN 6076 7 62 420 6076
Jul/14/2009, 9:00 Amateur Anal Success 3193 3 62 417 6286
Jul/13/2009, 12:00 Amateur Anal Success 3080 4 61 413 6160
Jul/12/2009, 9:00 Amateur Anal AVN 6283 5 61 408 6283
Jul/11/2009, 9:00 Amateur Anal Success 3080 4 61 404 6160
Jul/10/2009, 4:00 Amateur Anal AVN 10434 7 111 397 10434
Jul/9/2009, 8:00 Amateur Anal Success 5775 3 110 394 11550
Jul/8/2009, 11:00 Amateur Anal AVN 5700 5 60 389 5700
Jul/7/2009, 14:00 Amateur Anal Success 3500 3 70 386 7000
Jul/6/2009, 18:00 Amateur Anal Success 5335 3 110 383 10670
Jul/5/2009, 8:00 Amateur Anal AVN 10450 7 110 376 10900
Jul/4/2009, 10:00 Amateur Anal Success 3240 3 60 373 6480
Total 157501 158 2111 13264 211443
Mean 5250 5.267 70.366 442.133 7048.1

As you can see, you can make a fairly safe assumption that AVN gives twice the outcome as Success.
You can double the success outcome to see what the outcome would be if all your movies were AVN (this also eliminates fractions if instead you halved the AVN).
From my data C * X can equal anywhere from 0.1956088 to 0.2895442

Outcome = Combined level * Fame * 0.2425765 * (0.8 to 1.2)

The above is for Scandalous AVN movies outcome.

There is the formula and since I do not know and will probably never know all the variables, this is probably the closest you are going to get to the real thing.
For Peaceful AVN and Scandalous Success * 0.5
For Peaceful Success * 0.25

[-dAs]

Really impressive Psy, usefull datas :)

+1

[Equalizer]

@Psyche
Your data is comprehensive.
You should take a look at some of my movies.

Combined level AVN outcome Studio fame
648 AVN 50220 13
603 Success 18994 7
446 AVN 35457 15
475 Success 18762 8
532 Success 20648 7
532 AVN 32718 15


My problem is not that the AVN gives an outcome almost double than the Success.
My problem is that once with a combined level of 648 I get an AVN. Then, with a combined level of 603 I get a Success. Then, with a combined level of 446 (157 levels lower) I get an AVN again.
This is the random factor I'm talking about!
The fact that the combined level has absolutely no impact on the type of the movie (AVN or Success).

For you it wasn't that obvious because you don't get big differences in movie participation, but for me it was really obvious.

[jessiebelle]

And like I pointed out there has to be other factors involved in the formula for movie outcome other then movie level and fame level.

Here are three movies back to back in my studio.

Movie Result Outcome Fame Level

Lesbian Party AVN 317046 26 1994
Lesbian Party Success 124932 15 2154
Lesbian Party AVN 350676 29 2292
Lesbian Party Success 185325 15 2118
Lesbian Party AVN 276224 29 2158
Lesbian Party AVN 283635 30 2101
Lesbian Party Success 193864 15 2203
Lesbian Party Success 128781 14 2094
Lesbian Party Success 189213 15 2138
Lesbian Party Success 117929 14 1982

As you can see my studios members are good about joining movies (they like to get paid) so my studio usually has about the same range for levels yet the result and outcome vary every day. So like I had said in my last post unless you know exactly what everyone in your studio did for the 20 hours that the movie was being made and can see if your members were really active or just logged in and joined the movie and what their status was the entire 20 hours (jail, hospital, offline, etc...) there really is no true way to answer your question as the admins will never divulge the formula as it would just get a group of munchkins together in a studio that will make sure they get the most money possible out of every movie.

Just accept the fact that the movie outcome is not random, as a formula has to be in place for the program to produce a result, but your results will vary from day to day based on the information used in said formula. This is now and forever will remain a mystery.

[kestrel1940]

I think Big Joe said it best when he said that just like in RL studios don't always produce AVN movies every single time.

[Psyche]

You wanna know what affects AVN and success!!
That is 50/50, just count all your successes and AVNs and you will see that they are roughly equal.
Combined level, fame nothing affects it.
It is probably determined when the movie finishes.
Nothing, you or anyone does will affect it!
This is what I have observed from playing the game.
Wish you had told me earlier wouldn't have wasted my time on that stupid formula.

[Acacia]

Somebody mentioned that other factors as player activity are also a part of the equation. I am not sure how but I did notice a correlation between success vs AVN and the number off successful player attacks (slaps/robs).

When the players in the studio had an attack rate below 80% (for every 4 attacks we did we only got 1 attack back) the movie result was only succesfull... when the attack rate was above 90% the chance of AVN outcome was more than 50%. This is regardless of combined level!

Also I think the time that people joined the movie could also be a factor in determining success.....

By the way since this is a program there HAS to be a formula involved .... however that formula could include something like : x * rand(1,1000) , the rand() function gives a result between 1 and 1000 in this example... :D
There are some high level academic discussions on how random this rand() function is.... but for the purpose of this game you can assume it is random.

Besides there are 2 formulas involved, one that determines the outcome (success or AVN) and the other determines the payout and fame gain.


So the conclusions are:
1. There IS a formula without a doubt
2. There are variables that you can influence (together) beyond the obvious combined level and number of players joining
3. There could still be (and probably is) a random factor involved...

If you find the answer to some of the variables that can influence the outcome it is possible to boost your chances on an AVN but I dont think there is a solution to get 100% AVN.... since that would be kind of cheating ;)

[Acacia]

You wanna know what affects AVN and success!!
That is 50/50, just count all your successes and AVNs and you will see that they are roughly equal.


Given all the result lists in here and our own studio you could very well be correct about the 50/50 split in Success or AVN........

But it is still nice to search for the mystique of the game :D

[Dictator]

Of course there's a formula, how could that ever be doubted. And it's never going to be disclosed. Now when you're done figuring out what the outcome of a variable times another variable is, then i have some zen coans for you to contemplate:

- what is the use of a bucket without a bottom
- what is the sound of one hand clapping

I hope you all find enlightenment.